I just found out that a coworker of mine is writing his own blog.
His last entry is about Microsoft’s collapse.
I’d see three reasons why this would happen :
- more and more software companies are using a regular release system to maximise the user relationship, using his review and remarks to directly enhance the product.
Microsoft may do that on some professional projects, for what I know of it, yet its OS development is delivered all at once. Vista’s release has been delayed several times, and some components are supposed to be released while the main product would be delivered in the first quarter of next year.
How do you want to sell such a product ? Nobody’s waiting for it !
- Microsoft has big issues with its image. And what’s not good too : Microsft has no partners, or these are temporary alliances to occupy the battlefield - look at Zune, which is taking aback Microsoft music partners ! IBM, and the other hand, chosed to play the open-source card and the community alliance.
Ten years ago, this company (IBM) was still trying to ensure a monopoly. They found the hard way that they could not make it. Now, they have quite taken control of Java, have introduced themselves in the PHP community, and they are present in the OMG - do you know about UML ? Comes from there.
What did Microsoft during that time ? They developed some C# and produced a DSL (Domain Specific Language) system which is very Microsoft-ish, in the sense that it will work only on the Microsoft development products until the next release (thinking about the poor guys working using VB).
I suppose people working in the IT field have to consider choosing the development language from its maintability and how easy it is to find people using it.
That will be the end of my second point - Microsoft apps are for the Microsoft world.
- Microsoft is missing the evolution of the IT market. Why competing on the console market ? on the iPod market with Zune now ? This cannot work and they know it, they will lose money doing so.
Because Microsoft want to be present wherever an Internet connection is available, thus to change itself into an online service provider.
By migrating to Vista, Microsoft, using Web services, will provide you with complentary services to be accessed through fees.
Instead of acknowledging of the presence of the world out there, the Microsoft world just want to extend itself and block anything that would be out of control. (Look at the Blackberry needing to be interfaced with an Exchange Server, where there are free standards, like iCal, out there).
Microsoft will probably collapse.
Vista might well be the last OS they will release. On the long term, XP will be replaced by Linux and Mac OS.
Microsoft might survive if it completely changes its strategy now and switches to an online service provider.
It’s already too late. As the ITRedux blog points it, the online services are ready for personal and professional use.
The change in the lead might intervene too late as well. Bill Gates will retire in 2008, after his last obese product will be launched.
Ray Ozzie is more likely to take the right turn - just wait and see.
And while you wait, take a look at this. It’s a real delight.
